Ponder This Challenge - February 2026 - Blot-avoiding backgammon strategy
- Ponder This
Ponder This Challenge:
Alice and Bob are playing two games: they start simultaneously and the first one to win his game is the winner.
Alice is given an urn with N balls, colored in N different colors and in every second she randomly picks two balls, colors the first ball in the color of the second ball and returns both to the urn.
Her game is over once all the balls in the urn have the same color.
Bob is given an urn with M balls, all colorless, and in every second he picks a random ball, color it, and puts it back to the urn. Bob's game is over once all his balls are colored.
Our question is: what are the possible values of M for which (on average) Bob is expected to lose for N=80 and win for N=81?
Update 7/4: Alice picks two different random balls in and can not change their order: it colors the first in the color of the second. Bob can be color-blind: all he cares is whether a ball is colored or not; if he takes out a colored ball - he colors it again and continue. Both Bob and Alice finish their task each second.
Update 7/9: We ask for possible Ms for which the expected time of Bob's game is smaller than Alice's expected time for N=81 and greater for N=80.
We will post the names of those who submit a correct, original solution! If you don't want your name posted then please include such a statement in your submission!
We invite visitors to our website to submit an elegant solution. Send your submission to the ponder@il.ibm.com.
If you have any problems you think we might enjoy, please send them in. All replies should be sent to: ponder@il.ibm.com
Alice's expected game time is (n-1)**2, as you can read in the paper "A Colorful Urn" (PDF, 82KB)
Bob's game is the famous coupon collector problem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupon_collector%27s_problem.
Solving the equation for the expected value gives us 852 <= m <= 871.
We don't have an elegant solution for the more difficult version of this problem (as it was phrased before the update), which asked when Bob is expected to win, rather than when his expected value is smaller than Alice's. A simulation gives the answer as 764 <= m <= 780.