Disease dynamics in three models of dengue fever

Abstract

In recent decades, dengue becomes a major international public health concern. Dengue Fever (DF) is now endemic in more than 100 countries and impact one-third of the world's population1. This vector-borne disease is transmitted by the bite of an infectious Aedes mosquito. No specific vaccine and treatment are available. There are four serotypes of dengue viruses. Infection with one serotype affords life-long immunity to that serotype but only temporarily partial immunity to others. This increases the risk of developing lethal complications upon re-infection, mainly because of the effect of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE). Computational models in the literature seldom capture the vector population mainly because of the burden of computation. Modeling the Aedes population is important because combating the mosquito vector is the only way to contain dengue transmission today. We report two differential-equation models of DF, including the Aedes vector, and compare their dynamic behaviors with a published model [1]. The vector population model is based on earth science data including temperature, rainfall, vegetation and elevation. We hope to gain a better understanding of how the dynamics of DF disease dissemination depend on vector capacity, which may potentially suggest strategies for the control of the disease.