Evolution of Covid-like viruses under the influence of therapeutics

Abstract

This paper builds on previous works [1][2] of quasi-species dynamics models that elucidate the life cycle of viruses, and that emphasize the need for the study of therapeutics and their effects on the virus population. These works show the existence of a phase shift between different viral strategies. In the light of the current Covid-19 pandemic, interest in the genetic variability of the virus and its role in developing antivirals and vaccines has been rising. Here, we present our study of the role of therapeutics in three critical phases of the viral life cycle: infection, reproduction process, and fecundity. We found an interesting linear relation of the viral load as a function of the fecundity and a power law with the reproductive rate of the virus. In contrast, the number of viruses in the cell changes in an unexpected way with a change in the infection rate of the virus. Using this simplified model of the virus and its evolution and mutation, we highlight the possible effectiveness of therapeutics based on the part of the life cycle being influenced. *NSF Award Number 1604712