Forecast performance of an operational MESO-GAMMA-scale modelling system for Southern Florida

Abstract

In our continuing work on the implementation and applications of an operational mesoscale modellng system dubbed “Deep Thunder”, we examine its forecast performance for several events in southern Florida. The Deep Thunder system has been runningoperationally since January 2001 at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, NY. Initially, it provided model forecasts for the New York City metropolitan area. Over the last few years, it has been extended to provide model forecasts for the greater Baltimore-Washington, Chicago, Atlanta, Miami and Kansas City metropolitan areas. All geographies utilize a triple nested model domain (Treinish and Praino, 2006). Operations for southern Florida began inOctober 2005 and afforded the opportunity to study model performance for weather of tropical influence. Model forecasts are run for a 24-hour period typically twice per day. In order to evaluate the quality of theforecasts produced by Deep Thunder at a storm scale and its potential skill, we have examined a number of interesting cases for southern Florida. Previous studies have focused on other geographies (Praino et al, 2003; Praino and Treinish, 2004; Praino and Treinish, 2005). We will compare the model results withobservational data and other available forecasts as well as the operational availability of specific forecast products. Such performance is examined by considering forecast timing, locality, structure, and intensity of the cases chosen.