Toward simulating entire cities with behavioral models of traffic

Abstract

Resilient transportation systems enable quick evacuation, rescue, distribution of relief supplies, and other activities for reducing the impact of natural disasters and for accelerating the recovery from them. The resilience of a transportation system largely relies on the decisions made during a natural disaster. We developed an agent-based traffic simulator for predicting the results of potential actions taken with respect to the transportation system to quickly make appropriate decisions. For realistic simulation, we govern the behavior of individual drivers of vehicles with foundational principles learned from probe-car data. For example, we used the probe-car data to estimate the personality of individual drivers of vehicles in selecting their routes, taking into account various metrics of routes such as travel time, travel distance, and the number of turns. This behavioral model, which was constructed from actual data, constitutes a special feature of our simulator. We built this simulator using the X10 language, which enables massively parallel execution for simulating traffic in a large metropolitan area. We report the use cases of the simulator in three major cities in the context of disaster recovery and resilient transportation. © 1957-2012 IBM.